Nasdaq-100: Impressive Quarterly Gains Continue .

Analysis of the Nasdaq-100 Index historic returns on both a quarterly and monthly basis.

Nasdaq-100: Impressive Quarterly Gains Continue

By Chris Moyer / Product Development, Nasdaq Global Indexes

With the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) continuing to reach all-time highs, and now that we’re halfway through the year, it’s a good time to analyze some historic returns on both a quarterly and monthly basis. The chart below shows performance history for the Nasdaq-100 (Total Return) from January 31, 1985, to July 31, 2017. The NDX reached a new all-time high in late July and as of the end of the July 31, 2017, it’s up an impressive 16.7%. The Nasdaq-100 has posted impressive quarterly gains of 12% (Q1) and 4% (Q2) thus far in 2017. The last negative quarter it had was Q2 2016 of -1%. On a cumulative basis, the NDX has notched a gain of 5211%, which amounts to a 25% annualized return with 26% annualized volatility.




The chart below depicts the quarterly win streak from Q2-1985 to Q2-2017. We can see the the most recent quarterly win streak spanning four quarters from Q3-2016 to Q2-2017. The longest win streak was ten quarters, from Q1-2013 to Q2-2015.


During the longest win streak noted above, the largest gain was 12% in Q4-2014, while the smallest gain was 0.4% in Q1-2014.


The most recent quarterly win streak began in Q3-2016 and is still active as of Q2-2017. The largest quarterly gain during this streak was in Q3-2016 at 11%, while the smallest gain was in Q4-2016 at 0.1%.



The table below shows a relatively low correlation of 0.43 between the second quarter performance and yearly performance when comparing returns for the Nasdaq-100 from 1989 to 2016 . The Nasdaq-100 index had a number of stand-out performances in previous second quarters with the top gain coming in at 20% in a number of years (1995, 1997, 2009). The worst performing second quarter was in 2002 at -28%, which led to a decline of -38% on the year. On a yearly basis, the top performing time period was 1999 at 102%. This year, the Nasdaq-100 was up 4% in the second quarter.  


ALL QUARTERLY STATS: March 1988 – June 2017 

Moving forward we analyze performance statistics between the Nasdaq-100 (Total Return) vs. the S&P 500 (Total Return) for all quarters where data is available for both indexes. The average quarterly gain for the Nasdaq-100 was 11%, which is almost double the S&P 500 (6%). Note the largest quarterly gain for each respective index (Nasdaq-100: 54% vs. S&P 500: 21%). Although the quarterly win rate percent (the percent of months with a positive return) was slightly higher for the S&P 500, the larger gains for the Nasdaq-100 certainly make up for it. The largest quarterly gain for the Nasdaq-100 was in the fourth quarter 1999 at 54%, while the largest loss was in the third quarter 2001 at -36%.


SECOND QUARTER STATS:March 1988 – June 2017 

We see similar tendencies in analyzing historic second quarter statistics, with the average second quarter gain for the Nasdaq-100 (10%) outpacing that of the S&P 500 (6%). Historically, the largest second quarter gain for the Nasdaq-100 was in 20%, while the largest second quarter gain for the S&P 500 was 17%.


Monthly Stats: February 1988 -- July 2017 

The largest monthly gain for the Nasdaq-100 was 25% (November 1999), while the S&P 500’s largest monthly gain was just 11.



In terms of monthly win streaks, the latest one was seven months, which came between November 2016 and May 2017. During this timeframe, the largest gain was seen in January 2017 at 5.25%, followed by February 2017 at 4.37%.


Despite the Nasdaq-100’s second quarter 2017 return of 4%, the index was actually down -2.4% in the month of June. Since the end of the second quarter, the index had a strong recovery for the month of July and was up 4.2% .


The Nasdaq-100 Total Return Index has shown impressive performance since inception. Thus far into 2017 (as of July 31, 2017), it has outperformed the S&P 500 Total Return Index by just over 10%. From January 31, 1985, to the present, the Nasdaq-100 has displayed impressive gains in terms of quarterly and monthly performances. While the index had a down month in June 2017, it rebounded nicely and posted a 4.2% gain in July. The index is currently in the midst of a quarterly win streak that extends back four quarters to Q3-2016.

Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED. © 2017. Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1637-Q17
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